NFL picks, predictions, odds for Week 12: Vikings edge Bears

The NFL Week 12 schedule is the most unique of the season. We started with three Thanksgiving Day games (Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers, Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders, and Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers) and the first-ever Black Friday game (New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins). Then we get 11 games on Sunday and the Monday nighter (Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears). Now, let’s get to our NFL Week 12 picks, predictions, and odds.

Last weekend was a strange one, with close games and injuries running amok. We started the week losing Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow and Baltimore Ravens tight end Mark Andrews. After that, while the New York Giants, Green Bay Packers, and Philadelphia Eagles pulled nice upsets, it was several favorites failing to cover that messed up many tickets around the country.

The Las Vegas Raiders (vs. Dolphins), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. 49ers), and Arizona Cardinals (vs. Houston Texans) all played their opponents closer than expected and cashed their fans’ tickets if you took them with the spread.

As Week 12 gets underway, no NFL teams get Thanksgiving off. That means it’s our last bye week-free slate until the breaks are over after Week 14. We do get several teams back — and a few we love to bet against! — with the Atlanta Falcons, Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots, and New Orleans Saints all returning to action.

In the ClutchPoints NFL Week 11 picks, predictions, and odds series, it was another good week straight-up and a tough one against the spread. We were 9-5 on the winning team but just 6-7-1 against the number. That’s life in the NFL, though, so we dust ourselves off and get ready for Week 12 still on the winning side of the ledger for the season. Overall, the NFL picks here are 106-58 (still 64.6%) straight-up and 89-67-8 (57.0%) taking on the spread.

Previous NFL Picks & Predictions: Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 | Week 10 | Week 11

Before we get to the NFL Week 12 picks, predictions, and odds, as this is the season of giving thanks and watching football, I'd like to say thank you to all who have read this column over the last 12 weeks and to those just finding it this Thanksgiving weekend. I hope you've enjoyed/enjoy the analysis, prognostication, gut feelings, and occasional song lyrics that show up here every week. I hope you enjoy the holiday and the football, whether you watch with family or a way to escape them! Now, let's get to the picks and predictions before the tryptophan kicks in!

Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the NFL odds

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-7.5)

Full Packers-Lions betting preview

The Packers got a close win last week over the completely inept Chargers, who refuse to put bad teams away. The Lions got a close win last week after Jared Goff did everything in his power to give the game away until the final five minutes or so. And while this spread is a pretty big one, it should be bigger, especially with Aaron Jones out. Jordan Love is still not a good quarterback, and Goff is better than he showed last week. So, it’s bad news for all you Thanksgiving Day football watchers with this Packers-Lions pick. I have the Lions making this a boring game early.

Pick: Lions 31-17

Update: The Packers stunned the Lions with a 29-22 victory behind Jordan Love's big day.

Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys (-12.5)

Full Commanders-Cowboys betting preview

If you lose to the Giants, you should be relegated like in Premier League soccer. However, the Commanders are still (kind of) an NFL team, and they will be psyched to travel to Jerry’s World which, presumably, will have hot water after the game! That alone is a win for Washington and the only win they’ll get on the day. Yes, bad teams do step up and give more fight than usual on Turkey Day (see: Lions for like 30 years), but once the Cowboys snowball starts rolling downhill, it’s almost impossible to stop, no matter what holiday it is.

Pick: Cowboys 33-13

Update: As expected, the Cowboys drilled the Commanders in a 45-10 beatdown.

San Francisco 49ers (-7) at Seattle Seahawks

Full 49ers-Seahawks betting preview

Finally! Once the turkey is picked to the bone and the stuffing is gone, it’s time to settle into an actual competitive NFL football game. This game is for first place in the NFC West and should be a good one, right? Wrong. The 49ers only have three losses because of injuries, and they are back to full health on offense. The same can’t be said for the Seahawks, who will likely be missing running back Kenneth Walker III. Quarterback Geno Smith will is set to play, but he's banged up. For regular readers of this NFL picks, predictions, and odds column, you’ll know I always say that the 49ers are the best team in the league when fully healthy, and they’ll prove that in Week 12 action on Thanksgiving.

Pick: 49ers 28-10

Update: The 49ers took care of business with a 31-13 triumph over the rival Seahawks.

Miami Dolphins (-9.5) at New York Jets

Full Dolphins-Jets betting preview

Bear with me here. I swear I’ll pick some close games in the NFL Week 12 picks, predictions, and odds column this week! This, however, will not be one of them. Whether it’s Tim Boyle or Trevor Siemian, the Jets' quarterback situation is bad. Will one of these two be better than Zach Wilson? Probably. Could the Jets defense mount one last stand? Sure. I don’t want to bet on either of these outside possibilities, though, so I’ll take the Dolphins in a rout. The good news is you should feel free to shop Black Friday sales on your phone while this is going on.

Pick: Dolphins 30-16

Update: The Dolphins stomped out the hapless Jets, 34-13.

New England Patriots (-4.5) at New York Giants

Full Patriots-Giants betting preview

OK, now we’re getting to a closer — albeit certainly not better — NFL Week 12 game. This game is shaping up as the No. 2 Pick Bowl as the loser goes on to battle with the Panthers for the top selection (which Carolina will have to give to Chicago, of course). “Touchdown” Tommy Devito proved he is a Good Fella last week by beating the Commanders, and he gets another terrible team on Sunday. The Patriots are horrible, and we’ll likely see both Bailey Zappe and Mac Jones in this game, and maybe even some Will Grier. Who knows? We’ll also see the countdown to Bill Belichick’s exit start in earnest as the Patriots lose to the Giants, and it becomes clear (if it’s not already) that he’s done in New England.

Pick: Giants 21-20

Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) at Cincinnati Bengals

Full Steelers-Bengals betting preview

Oh (Matt) Canadaaaa/ We say goodbye to theeeee/ Now that you are gone/ The offense is glorious and freeeee!

The Steelers fans wanted it, and they got it. Matt Canada is now out as Steelers offensive coordinator. For the first time since 1941, the Steelers have made an in-season coaching change, and this week it will pay off. The Bengals, on the other hand, will try their best, but with Joe Burrow now out, they know deep down that their season is over. I think Pittsburgh will get a little bump here, and players like Jaylen Warren, George Pickens, Diontae Johnson, and even Najee Harris will have big games. I also like Mike Tomlin and company to win by a touchdown and then some.

Pick: Steelers 24-14

Carolina Panthers at Tennessee Titans (-3.5)

Full Panthers-Titans betting preview

The Panthers are a bad team, but so are the Titans if we’re being honest. And the only reason this game is interesting is the fact that it pits the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Bryce Young, against the No. 33 pick, Will Levis. The Titans are the better — and better-coached — team, but Young did step up and come through against the No. 2 overall pick, CJ Stroud, even though the Texans QB is an MVP candidate and the no-doubt Offensive Rookie of the Year. This game will be closer than the four-point spread suggests. So, while I do think the Titans will win, I don’t trust them to do it by more than a field goal.

Pick: Titans 14-13

Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5) at Houston Texans

Full Jaguars-Texans betting preview

This seems like one of the games in this NFL Week 12 picks, predictions, and odds column where I have to trust my eyes more than the reputations of the teams or the narratives. While stationed in London, it looked like the Jaguars were one of the best teams in the league. As of late, though, that hasn’t seemed like the case despite their blowout win against the Titans. On the other side, CJ Stroud is not playing like a rookie, and he is unfazed in close games. Believe it or not, I already trust him in the clutch more than Trevor Lawrence. Give me the Texans here to pull the upset.

Pick: Texans 28-27

New Orleans Saints (-2.5) at Atlanta Falcons

Full Saints-Falcons betting preview

It’s embarrassing that this is one of the small handful of games that will likely decide the NFC South. Both these teams are bad, yet one will get the honor of being smoked at home by the Cowboys in Round 1 of the playoffs. I have no real feel for this game, especially with both teams coming off a bye, Derek Carr (possibly?) hurt, and Desmond Ridder now the starter for the Falcons. The one thing that is known is that Taysom Hill always plays well against the Falcons, so what the heck, let’s pick the Saints in this unwatchable affair.

Pick: Saints 20-19

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)

Full Buccaneers-Colts betting preview

This isn’t exactly high-level analytics, but the karma the Colts created by cutting a franchise player in Shaq Leonard — who went and gave away turkeys to the local community AFTER the team released him — is bad juju. In terms of real football analysis, the Buccaneers aren’t as bad as Vegas seems to think. Yes, they struggle mightily against good teams, but the Colts are not a good team. This should be a close one, and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Buccaneers won this one outright on the road.

Pick: Buccaneers 24-23

Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals

Full Rams-Cardinals betting preview

Everyone loves the Cardinals now that Kyler Murray is back. Just remember, the team had Murray for most of last year, boasted better talent (although with worse coaching) last season, and the team was still terrible. Yes, Murray is an upgrade over Clayton Tune and even the sainted Josh Dobbs, but he’s still not a top NFL quarterback. Matthew Stafford is a top NFL quarterback when healthy, and Aaron Donald is still a monster up front. The Rams are a tough team to play, and even though I feel like I’m saying this a lot this week, while they don’t often beat good teams, they can beat the bad ones. Rams win this one outright but don't cover.

Pick: Rams 16-14

Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos (-1.5)

Full Browns-Broncos betting preview

The Broncos are the hottest team in the league right now, winners of four straight. However, while it might not seem like it amid all the quarterback drama, the Browns have won three straight and five of their last six. Cleveland does have the best defense in the league, but Russell Wilson checking it down 47 times a game may not be affected by that. In the end, the Browns are starting a fifth-round rookie quarterback, and while the defense may be good enough to win some games when that is the case, they won’t win them all. Of the two streaks on the line here, I say the Broncos are the ones who keep their rolling.

Pick: Broncos 24-20

Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) at Las Vegas Raiders

Full Chiefs-Raiders betting preview

The Raiders are a different team with Antonio Pierce at the helm and a much better one than they were with Josh McDaniels. They have some incredible offensive weapons that are now actually being featured and some real defensive playmakers. That said, like the Browns above, the Raiders are starting a rookie quarterback drafted on Day 3. As for the Chiefs, the lack of wide receiver talent is a real issue, and they are a team (or at least an offense) that looks like it is sleepwalking through the regular season. In this NFL Week 12 picks, predictions, and odds space, I’ll still take the Chiefs to win because of their excellent and (maybe no longer?) underrated defense. Not by double digits, though.

Pick: Chiefs 28-23

Buffalo Bills at Philadelphia Eagles (-3)

Full Bills-Eagles betting preview

New offensive coordinator Joe Brady called a nice game against the Jets, but it didn’t take much to beat New York with its offense playing so poorly. On the other hand, the Eagles should have lost last week to the Chiefs if Marquez Valdes-Scantling could catch. Philadelphia is cruising to an easy NFC crown, it seems like right now, and Buffalo is in a fight for its playoff life the rest of the way out. When the Bills play well, it often comes in bunches, so this may be the Bills Mafia member in me talking, but give me Josh Allen and co. to pull the upset on the road.

Pick: Bills 31-30

Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Los Angeles Chargers

Full Ravens-Chargers betting preview

Losing Mark Andrews was a big blow, but these Ravens wide receivers have finally started to step up after years of offering Lamar Jackson little to no help. The running game is on the upswing, too, as undrafted rookie Keaton Mitchell looks like he might be a real find. On the LA side, the Chargers lost Joey Bosa for at least four games last week as he heads to IR, and the walls are closing in on head coach Brandon Staley, who is snapping at reporters in postgame pressers. The only thing that gives me pause here is that the Chargers aren’t simply a bad team. They are a team that seems to play to the level of their competition, so they could play the Ravens tough. I’ll take Baltimore still.

Pick: Ravens 23-17

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-3)

I’ll be honest. The Bears were a little friskier than I thought they’d be last week. The defense made Jared Goff’s life miserable, and Justin Fields put up some points. Maybe they are a team on the rise at the end of the season here. As for the Vikings, they will be a better team when Justin Jefferson gets back, but without knowing his status for Week 12, I have a feeling he’ll come back after the bye. If that is the case, I think this game is closer than the field goal-plus spread that Vegas is assigning it. For the Monday night Bears-Vikings pick in our NFL Week 12 picks, predictions, and odds column, let’s go with Minnesota to win and Chicago to cover.

Pick: Vikings 23-21

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