The NFL Week 18 schedule is here, and we’ll pause while we pour a little out for the 2023 NFL season. With the playoffs one week away, this last week should be filled with weird outcomes as teams compete for postseason spots and draft slots. The slate begins on Saturday afternoon with the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens and wraps up with the AFC East title showdown between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins. With that in mind, let’s get to our NFL Week 18 picks, predictions, and odds.
Last week, there were some surprising outcomes, like the Ravens stomping the Dolphins, and the Arizona Cardinals upsetting the Philadelphia Eagles. We also got referee Brad Allen snatching a victory — and a chance at the No. 1 seed in the NFC — away from the Detroit Lions.
However, there were some teams that did just what we thought they’d do, too. The Cleveland Browns, Kansas City Chiefs, and San Francisco 49ers all won to secure their playoff slot, and the Carolina Panthers lost to officially gift-wrap the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft to the Chicago Bears.
On the NFL Week 18 calendar, the AFC East, AFC South, NFC East, and NFC South will all be decided once and for all. In the AFC, the Jacksonville Jaguars, Bills, Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans, and Steelers will fight for three available slots, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Green Bay Packers, Seattle Seahawks, New Orleans Saints, Minnesota Vikings, and Atlanta Falcons compete for just two playoff vacancies.
Also, remember, this week only features NFL games on Saturday and Sunday, so you’ll have to figure out something else to do with your life on Thursday and Monday. That means one late afternoon and one primetime Saturday game, six early-window Sunday, seven late-window Sunday, and a Sunday nighter to wrap things up.
Aaaaand, we’re back! Week 16 was our first non-winning week of the season, but we came back in a big way for the ClutchPoints NFL Week 17 picks, predictions, and odds column, hitting a 12-4 mark straight-up and going a solid 9-7 against the spread. That keeps us on the plus side of the ledger for the 2023 NFL season, with a 163-93 (63.6%) straight-up mark and a 135-110-11 (55.1%) record against the spread.
Previous NFL Picks & Predictions: Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 | Week 10 | Week 11 | Week 12| Week 13 | Week 14 | Week 15| Week 16 | Week 17
Now, here are the NFL Week 18 picks, predictions, and odds.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the NFL odds
Pittsburgh Steelers (-4) at Baltimore Ravens
This Steelers season has been a mess, yet somehow Mike Tomlin figured out a way to wrestle his injured and unruly team to the finish line with a winning record win, lose, or draw in Week 18. For the Ravens, they have everything wrapped up and will grapple with the age-old NFL question, should teams rest in the final week of the season if they have a first-round bye?
The interesting wrinkle here is that in 2019, John Harbaugh rested his starters in Week 17, still beat the Steelers, but then came out rusty and lost to the Tennessee Titans. Despite that fact, on Wednesday afternoon, Harbaugh announced Lamar Jackson will not play in this game, meaning Tyler Huntley will take over. And is he any worse than Mason Rudolph? I say no, so my Steelers-Ravens pick is Baltimore in an “upset.”
Pick: Ravens 21-20
Houston Texans (-1.5) at Indianapolis Colts
This is one of the best and most impactful games on the NFL Week 18 schedule as we begin this picks, predictions, and odds column. Win this one, and you’re in the dance. Lose, and you’re out. Tie, and things will start to get real freaky in the AFC.
Both CJ Stroud and Gardner Minshew — along with their teams — have outperformed expectations this year thanks to their quarterback play and some great coaching from first-year head coaches DeMeco Ryans and Shane Steichen. Only one will (probably) get in, though, and in games like this that are a true coin flip, I’ll take the QB I believe in more. In this matchup, that is the rookie sensation from Houston.
Pick: Texans 26-23
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-3)
Don’t ask me how the logistics of this would work, but the NFL should rule that no NFC South team gets in the playoffs this season, and both the Texans and Colts make it instead. Both these teams are on the outside looking in, as they basically need a win or tie coupled with a Buccaneers loss to make the playoffs. That does mean both teams will go all-out, and if the Panthers somehow jump on the Bucs early, this game will get real competitive.
On the flip side, things could get awkward if the Buccaneers jump in front early, and these two teams all of a sudden would benefit draft-wise from a loss. I don’t think either would outright tank in the second half. I’m just saying it’s interesting. What’s not interesting is this game overall, but I do think Derek Carr and the Saints are the slightly better QB and team. Still, let’s try and split the difference with New Orleans winning, but only by one.
Pick: Saints 17-16
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-7)
The Browns are the No. 5 seed in the AFC Playoffs no matter what happens in Week 18, so we can expect to see the Baby Browns on the field against the Bengals on Sunday afternoon. Plus, Kevin Stefanski is starting the recently signed Jeff Driskel at quarterback with PJ Walker as the backup. This game means nothing to the Bengals either, as they were eliminated from playoff contention last week.
This is one of the hardest games in the NFL Week 18 picks, predictions, and odds column to pick, as it might be the most meaningless — in terms of playoff or draft position — games on the board. Lots of players will be trying to put good plays on tape, though, so while the Bengals probably will win, this could be closer than the oddsmakers think.
Pick: Bengals 24-20
Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5) at Tennessee Titans
The Jaguars are limping to the finish line as much as any team in these last few weeks, losing four straight before finally beating the lowly Panthers last week. This week, they get the Titans, who aren't great, but they are much better than the Panthers. Ahead of this game, Titans coach Mike Vrabel got emotional about losing, and maybe this gets his team fired up. Maybe Trevor Lawrence is still hurt and doesn't carry the team like he usually does. Maybe the Titans have enough pride and a good enough coach to mess up a division rival's season just because they can.
Honestly, I think enough of these things are true that I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that Tennessee not only covers but wins straight-up. Vrabel can get his team up for this game, and Ryan Tannehill may not be the starter of the future, but he is a professional QB who has won a lot of games in this league. Sorry, Jaguars fan(s), but I think the collapse comes complete in Week 18.
Pick: Titans 28-27
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5) at Carolina Panthers
Well, the Buccaneers' money train finally stopped rolling last week, as Baker Mayfield and company went down to the Saints by 10. That will happen, and it doesn’t mean we’re off the Bucs in the NFL Week 18 picks, predictions, and odds column.
If they beat the worst team in the league, they win the NFC South and get into the playoffs, likely hosting the rapidly crashing Eagles on Wild Card Weekend. Tampa Bay is the best team in the division, despite not showing it (or showing up at all) last weekend, and they will cover against the Panthers.
Pick: Buccaneers 28-14
New York Jets at New England Patriots (-1.5)
Neither of these teams should want to win this game in order to get a better draft pick, but both coaching staffs will have their squads prepared to go out and try to get the win on Sunday. This is one we'll keep short and sweet because, honestly, neither team winning this dog game would be much of a surprise. In the end, I'll take the Patriots because they've played hard lately, and when all else fails, Bill Belichick and New England still have the institutional memory that the Jets simply don't.
Pick: Patriots 13-9
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-3.5)
Thanks to Brad Allen sucking at his job, the Lions have little to play for in Week 18. They could possibly sneak into the No. 2 seed but would need both the Cowboys and Eagles to slip up on Sunday. Still, Dan Campbell is the guy who went for two three times last week, despite the long odds after the first play. Do you think he’s resting starters for the final game? Don’t count on it.
The Lions will put the Vikings out of their misery finally and crush any thin playoff hopes they still have. Even if Nick Mullens can pull out a W here, the Vikes still need the Packers, Seahawks, and either Buccaneers or Saints losses to get in. Spoiler alert: It’s not going to happen.
Pick: Lions 23-16
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-3)
The Packers have a win-and-in game in Week 18 against the Bears, and we all know that the late Aaron Rodgers bequeathed ownership of the Chicago franchise to Jordan Love on his way out the door. That said, Bears quarterback Justin Fields and head coach Matt Eberflus are playing and coaching for their professional lives right now, and frankly, they’ve simply been more impressive than their Green Bay counterparts lately.
The Bears are hot right now with two consecutive wins and four in their last five. Their only two losses in their last seven are three and four-point Ls to the playoff-bound Browns and Lions, respectively, and they were games Chicago should have won before collapsing late. Fields and Eberflus have one more shot to convince Ryan Poles to keep them and either trade the top pick or take Marvin Harrison Jr. I say they do it in this NFL Week 18 picks, predictions, and odds column.
Pick: Bears 24-23
Dallas Cowboys (-13.5) at Washington Commanders
I’ll probably be kicking myself when the Cowboys go up by 30 here, but on the road, Dallas still hasn’t proven it can look anything like the juggernaut it is at home, save for a Week 11 blowout in Carolina.
With Ron Rivera coaching his last game in Washington, and possibly, at 67, his last NFL game ever, Riverboat Ron will be pulling out all the stops, as will the auditioning Eric Bieniemy. This game will get weird, for sure, and while I still think the Cowboys will win to clinch the No. 2 seed in the NFC, it may not be a two-touchdown affair.
Pick: Cowboys 27-23
Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals upset the Eagles last week, so they are still a team that is fighting, which is a credit to first-year head coach Jonathan Gannon and embattled quarterback Kyler Murray. However, that seemed like the last hurrah for the squad after a seaon of up-and-down play (at best).
Seattle has been up and down all year, and they seem to come up much bigger or smaller than expected in any given game. That said, the team absolutely needs this game to have any chance to get into the playoffs. A Packers loss is the other big thing they need, but the win is first, and they should get it in the desert.
Pick: Seahawks 28-24
Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-4)
This Sam Darnold vs. Carson Wentz matchup should be a barn burner! Seriously, though, neither of these teams are playing for anything and we won’t see any important starters anywhere near the field in this one. This game screams stay away, because anything can happen in this glorified preseason tilt. In the end, the 49ers are the deeper squad overall (I guess), and the QB is slightly better, so let’s take them to win and cover.
Pick: 49ers 21-16
Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5) at New York Giants
Two or three weeks ago, I surely would have written that anything other than an Eagles double-digit win would be shocking here. But in the last few weeks, we’ve learned that there is something terribly wrong in Philly right now. Plus, this is a division game, and anything can happen, even in the most meaningless inner-division matchups.
New York played Philadelphia two weeks ago and lost by eight. That was the Eagles' only win in their last five games. This week, I do think the Eagles right the ship and win, even though if they are scoreboard-watching and the Cowboys pull ahead, Nick Sirianni might pull the starters. That’s why I like the G-Men to keep it close.
Pick: Eagles 26-24
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5)
This may be the pick I’m most confident in throughout the whole NFL Week 18 picks, predictions, and odds column here. Denver just had its coach and franchise try to bully its franchise quarterback into taking less money, and that can’t go over well in the locker room. Sean Payton and the Broncos did win last week with Jarrett Stidham at the sticks, but it wasn’t impressive.
On the other hand, Las Vegas is still playing its hardest for Antonio Pierce to keep his job this offseason. Yes, they lost to the playoff-contending Colts last week by a field goal, but in this game that is only for pride, the Raiders have way more of it right now.
Pick: Raiders 30-16
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5)
I’m sorry, but I don’t understand what has earned the Chargers the respect of being better than field goal favorites in front of their joke of a home crowd even with the Chiefs playing every backup they can fit on the 53-man roster. Sure, they hung with the Bills in Giff Smith’s (First and) Last Stand, but they gave up 63 to the Raiders and only managed three field goals against the quitting Broncos.
Smith isn’t getting this job this offseason either, so any “win one for the Giff-er” talk is silly, too. Blain Gabbert to Noah Gray admittedly doesn’t have the same ring to it as Patrick Mahomes to Travis Kelce, but it will still be enough to beat the dog Chargers.
Pick: Chiefs 16-6
Buffalo Bills (-3) at Miami Dolphins
It would be so Buffalo Bills to climb back from a seemingly insurmountable 6-6 hole through 12 games to get a shot at the AFC East crown and then blow it. “Luckily” for Bills Mafia, what would be even more Bills-y is coming back, winning the AFC East, making the AFC Championship or even the Super Bowl, and then losing!
That seems like the more likely scenario for Western New Yorkers, and that may be what happens after the Bills win the AFC East in the last 2023 NFL regular season game of the year. The reason they will do this is because the Dolphins defense and offensive weapons are so banged up, Buffalo should be able to bully them all over the field. Look for another James Cook masterclass, and if the Dolphins go down early, they may pack it in for the starters and get ready for Wild Card Weekend. We go with the Bills to win the AFC East in this NFL Week 18 picks, predictions, and odds column.
Pick: Bills 34-27
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