NFL picks, predictions, odds for Week 16: 49ers take down Ravens

The NFL Week 16 slate is upon us, and while there are a few other things going on in everyone’s lives this time of year, there is also wall-to-wall pro football, which truly makes this the hap-happiest season of all. We started with the Los Angeles Rams beating the New Orleans Saints on Thursday and end with a wild Christmas Day triple-header of the Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs, New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles, and Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers. With that in mind, let’s get to our NFL Week 16 picks, predictions, and odds.

The Monday night madness is just the capper on an NFL Week 16 schedule that stretches out over four glorious days. After the standard Thursday nighter, we had two Saturday games, six early window and three late window Christmas Eve Sunday games, plus one more in primetime, and then the Christmas Day trifecta.

This group of games will hopefully bring more holiday drama than last week. While we closed with a tight Seattle Seahawks upset over the Philadelphia Eagles, we started with a 42-point Raiders blowout of the Los Angeles Chargers and watched nine other games finish with double-digit victories for the winners.

Despite the plethora of blowouts, there were some tight games, with the CJ Stroud-less Houston Texans edging the Tennessee Titans, the Cleveland Browns barely escaping the Chicago Bears trap, and the Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons playing a tight (but horrifically ugly) 9-7 barn burner.

In Week 16, leaders are tied atop the AFC South, NFC East, and NFC South, and both No. 1 seeds are still up for grabs. There are also 26 of the league’s 32 teams still mathematically alive for the seven playoff spots in each conference.

In the ClutchPoints NFL Week 15 picks, predictions, and odds column, we absolutely crushed it both straight-up and against the spread! Outside of a little rough stretch in the early Sunday games and Monday night, it was all winners here. We finished the week 12-4 picking the winners straight-up and 10-6 using the spread. That means more presents under the tree this year! So, as we approach the end of the calendar year, we are 143-81 (63.8%) now straight-up and 121-93-10 (56.5%) with the spread.

Previous NFL Picks & Predictions: Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 | Week 10 | Week 11 | Week 12| Week 13 | Week 14 | Week 15

Now, here are the NFL Week 16 picks, predictions, and odds.

Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the NFL odds

New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams (-4.5)

The Rams are 17-4-1 against the spread in their last 22 games played in December, and the Saints don’t seem like the team that will put a dent in that record, especially during a short week, on the road, after a four-and-a-half-hour flight west. Derek Carr and company made light work of the Giants last week, but the Rams are a team on the rise, and veteran star Matthew Stafford is a lot different than Tommy “Cutlets” DeVito.

There will be some good, close games to pick in this NFL Week 16 picks, predictions, and odds column. The Saints-Rams pick just simply isn’t one of them. Use Thursday to wrap presents or do some last-minute shopping. There will be games much better than this on the way,

Pick: Rams 28-18

Update: The Rams took care of business, earning a 30-22 victory over the Saints with Matthew Stafford leading the way. 

Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

This holiday season, remember that it is the effort and not the gift that counts. Steelers wide receivers George Pickens and Diontae Johnson need to be reminded of this, as their complete lack of effort at times this season has been absurd. In fact, the whole Steelers team seems to have tuned out head coach Mike Tomlin, going from a playoff contender to a pretender in the last month.

As for the Bengals, Jake Browning is having an incredible run that will ultimately make him a lot of money and likely earn him a chance to be a starter somewhere next season (via trade because Browning is an exclusive right free agent, but that’s another story for another time). For now, Browning won’t have Ja’Marr Chase on Saturday, but the Bengals still have enough to beat the sinking Steelers.

Pick: Bengals 20-17

Update: The Steelers shocked the world behind Mason Rudolph, blowing out the Bengals by 23 points, 34-11.

Buffalo Bills (-12.5) at Los Angeles Chargers

Public service announcement: Remember, this game is a Peacock exclusive, so Bills fans, make sure to get your parent’s/child’s/sibling’s/neighbors’ user ID and password before the 8:01 p.m. ET kickoff. And Chargers fans … just kidding! There are no Chargers fans anymore!

We love to talk about the new coach bump after a head coach gets fired here in the NFL Week 16 picks, predictions, and odds space, but following the acing of Brandon Staley and general manager Tom Telesco — which happened after the embarrassing 63-21 drubbing by the Raiders — the entire LA locker room has officially quit on the 2023 season. Take the Bills (and their new superstar running back James Cook) by a billion.

Pick: Bills 42-6

Update: The Bills didn't cover the spread and needed a last-minute field goal to officially eliminate the Chargers from playoff contention. 

Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)

Last week, we went against our “I can’t stand the Falcons” policy and picked them to beat the worst team in the NFL. How did they reward us? With a ridiculous loss to the heretofore one-win Panthers team.

This week it’s back to the previous rule, which seems even sweeter given that Atlanta is giving Indianapolis points. Plus, the Colts have seemed undervalued for most of the year. The team can move the ball and score, especially on a bad team like the Falcons. That’s why we’ll stay Christmas Eve with a Colts upset selection.

Pick: Colts 21-20

Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at Carolina Panthers

Save for a small stretch early in the season, we’ve picked against the Packers a lot this season, and most of the time — including last week — it has worked out pretty well. That said, we’re going to do the exact same thing we did with the Falcons (see above) and assume that the Packers have to be able to beat the lowly Panthers, who now have two wins.

For some reason, many people seem to think that Jordan Love is having a promising season because his team has won a few games, and he’s 10th in passing yards. But Love is simply too inaccurate. He’s 23rd in completion percentage behind such luminaries as Mac Jones, Desmond Ridder, Aidan O'Connell, and Joshua Dobbs. That said, rant over, and Love is still better (and more accurate) than Bryce Young. The Packers win with relative ease.

Pick: Packers 23-10

Cleveland Browns (-3) at Houston Texans

The Texans showed a lot last week, beating the Titans without CJ Stroud and seemingly any good receivers. This team is tough, well-coached, and resilient. Get your shots on now, NFL, because the Texans are about to become a real contender in the next few seasons.

We picked against the Texans last week without Stroud, and the rookie QB seems likely out again as he still hasn't cleared concussion protocol this week. Still, Case Keenum is solid enough to win with this group. Additionally, the Browns defense isn’t nearly as good on the road, and Joe Flacco is, well, Joe Flacco. A Browns win and Texans cover wouldn’t shock me, but if we like the underdog to cover, we should like them to win flat-out in a game like this.

Pick: Texans 24-23

Detroit Lions (-3) at Minnesota Vikings

Look, there are still plenty of flaws the Lions need to figure out before they are real contenders in the NFC. That said, they are still a pretty good team, and they remembered that in Week 15, righting the ship in a 42-17 whooping of the Broncos. This week, they’ll look to put another team to bed and end the Vikings’ playoff hopes once and for all.

The Vikings are a solid team, they just have no levers left to pull at quarterback. The franchise refused to figure out a true succession plan for Kirk Cousins, and when his Minnesota career ended a few months shy of when the team expected, the results were predictable. This team doesn’t have the signal-caller to win a few more games and make a playoff push, and the Lions will put the final nail in their coffin on Sunday.

Pick: Lions 38-16

Washington Commanders at New York Jets (-3)

The NFL made the right move burying this game in the window with the most other games early on Christmas Eve. This game is a stinker and will not be fun to watch. Both these teams are toward the end of brutal seasons and are getting their butts kicked on a regular basis. If either (or even both) of these teams sleepwalked through this game, it wouldn’t be a shock.

The only small difference between these two teams is that Commanders backup Jacoby Brissett came in last week and gave his team a spark it hasn’t had in weeks. On the flip side, the Jets have tried every QB option imaginable (some twice), and there is no spark left to give. That’s why we’ll take the Commanders in the “upset” here.

Pick: Commanders 14-13

Seattle Seahawks (-3) at Tennessee Titans

The Seahawks got through a brutal five-game stretch by finally pulling out a win against the Eagles in Week 15. Yes, the win may have said more about the Eagles than the Seahawks, but Drew Lock led his team to a gritty W nonetheless.

And speaking of backup quarterbacks, Will Levis will likely be out of this game with a sprained ankle, meaning Ryan Tannehill should make the start in this game. Tannehill is still a serviceable QB, and he should have the Titans moving the ball. Still, the Seahawks are battle-tested now, and with Geno Smith probably back, the Seahawks should take this one by at least a field goal.

Pick: Seahawks 19-16

Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Here in the NFL Week 16 picks, predictions, and odds series, we’ve been on Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers all season. Vegas hasn't given them much respect, with this line opening at Buccaneers +1. However, this line has moved a ton, likely due to Trevor Lawrence's status. So much money came in on the Tampa Bay side this line got to Buccaneers -3, but now with Lawrence out of concussion protocol, it has swung back to Jaguars -1.5.

Even with Lawrence playing, the Buccaneers still seem like a good pick. While Jacksonville doesn’t have to travel far and is actually much better on the road than in Duval this season, Tampa Bay has been good to us, so let’s stick with them.

Pick: Buccaneers 24-20

Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears (-3.5)

These are two frisky teams that are capable of surprisingly good or truly horrible performances on a week-to-week basis. Both Kyler Murray and Justin Fields can have their moments both ways, and it’s hard to predict which version of the QB we’ll get each weekend.

Overall, the Bears are the more talented team, but Murray is the slightly better overall quarterback. The Cardinals have a better coach, but the Bears have a better defense. This one is extremely tough to pick, so the best move is to split the difference. Let’s go Bears to win, but not by the 4.5 points Vegas suggests.

Pick: Bears 13-10

Dallas Cowboys at Miami Dolphins (-1.5)

This may be the hardest game to pick in this NFL Week 16 picks, predictions, and odds piece. The Dolphins haven’t beaten a good team all year, and the Cowboys haven’t really either, taking down the Seahawks and Eagles in the midst of multi-game losing streaks. Plus, the Cowboys are awful on the road.

Something has to give in this game, and frankly, I’m not sure what it is. In the end, I’m going to go with the Cowboys for two reasons. One is that Tyreek Hill may not be at 100 percent still, and while it didn’t matter that he was out against the Jets, it will against the Cowboys. The other thing is that the Cowboys have, in fact, beaten good teams despite the timing of beating them, and the Dolphins just haven’t. Yup, I’m betting on Mike McCarthy here, and it scares the heck out of me.

Pick: Cowboys 31-30

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (-7.5)

Christmas morning comes really early, especially for parents of young kids. Well, the NFL did all of us a favor by putting this game on as the Christmas Eve night game. The Broncos aren’t the killers they looked like a few weeks ago, but they are a good team overall. They are definitely better than the Patriots, who still haven’t found any kind of identity or decent quarterback play this season. The good news here is that this game will be over early, and you can get to bed so visions of sugarplums can dance in your head.

Pick: Broncos 28-7

Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5)

The Chiefs finally put on a show (and covered) last week against the Patriots, who stink. When Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce play decent teams, though, they still haven’t looked like world-beaters. This is not to say the Raiders are a juggernaut by any means, but they looked good enough and should have enough confidence after last week’s destruction of the Chargers.

Division games are always tough, especially late in the season when you’ve already played once. The Chiefs beat the Raiders 31-17 back in Week 12, but this one should be a little closer than that. I wish I had the chutzpah to pick a Raiders win straight-up, but with now Christmas Day miracle in store, how about just taking the Raiders to cover the spread?

Pick: Chiefs 27-23

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-13.5)

It’s time for the Eagles to remember who they are and how they got where they are. This team is among the best in the NFL, and despite a three-game losing streak, they will play like it again. And remember what I said about division games being tough the second time around? Well, luck for Philly this is the first tilt with the Giants this season.

It seems like the Tommy DeVito magic is gone, and even bringing seven fishes to this game isn’t going to help. This is a monster spread, but the big NFL Week 16 picks, predictions, and odds bold call is the Eagles carry the number with ease.

Pick: Eagles 38-13

Baltimore Ravens at San Francisco 49ers (-6)

Heading into the NFL Week 16 weekend, this is the matchup between the two No. 1 seeds in the league. The Ravens and 49ers could easily both be headed for a bye in a few weeks, but the winner of this game will almost guarantee it.

While Cris Collinsworth couldn’t contain his enthusiasm over how great Lamar Jackson was last Sunday night, the truth is, he’s playing well but not great by any means. The Baltimore QB still has a level to go to — which could be good news in the playoffs — but right now, he’s not there. On the other hand, as we say every week, the 49ers are by far the best team in the NFL when fully healthy. And they’re fully healthy. Going with a big 49ers win here to wrap up the NFL Week 16 picks, predictions, and odds column.

Pick: 49ers 42-30

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