The NFL Week 17 schedule is here, and after a wild Christmas weekend, it’s time to get down to the nitty gritty and decide who goes to the 2023 NFL Playoffs and who hops a plan to Cancun on Jan. 8. The penultimate week of the regular season kicked off with the New York Jets at the Cleveland Browns and ends on Sunday night with the Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings. With that in mind, let’s get to our NFL Week 17 picks, predictions, and odds.
Upsets abound in Week 16 as the Pittsburgh Steelers, Las Vegas Raiders, and Baltimore Ravens took down the Cincinnati Bengals, Kansas City Chiefs, and San Francisco 49ers, respectively. The heavily favored Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles also came close to losing to the Los Angeles Chargers and New York Giants.
This week, it’s do-or-die time for too many teams' playoff chances to mention individually. However, it’s worth noting that only the Ravens and Miami Dolphins entered the week having officially clinched a playoff spot in the AFC, with the Browns joining the crew after their win over the Jets. Meanwhile, the 49ers, Eagles, Detroit Lions, and Dallas Cowboys are in on the NFC side of the bracket.
As for the layout of games this week, we have the Thursday nighter, one Saturday tilt, 10 (way too many) early-window Sunday games, three in the late window on Sunday, and one Sunday night contest. The NFL is magnanimously letting college football have the stage on Monday night (aka New Year’s Day) for their playoff games.
Well, it was bound to happen eventually. The ClutchPoints NFL Week 15 picks, predictions, and odds column was our first non-winning week — straight-up and against the spread — of the 2023 NFL season. Blame it on the weird, spread-out schedule, the eggnog, or listening to All I Want for Christmas Is You on repeat, but this was not a good week. In the end, we were 8-8 picking the winners straight-up and a brutal 5-10-1 against the spread. The good news is we still have some nice padding from previous weeks and only fall to 151-89 (62.9%) now straight-up and 126-103-11 (55.0%) with the spread.
Previous NFL Picks & Predictions: Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 | Week 10 | Week 11 | Week 12| Week 13 | Week 14 | Week 15| Week 16
Now, here are the NFL Week 17 picks, predictions, and odds.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the NFL odds
New York Jets at Cleveland Browns (-7.5)
Full Jets-Browns betting preview
The Jets made a last stand in Week 16, beating the Commanders. However, things got closer than they should have late after Jacoby Brissett took over for Sam Howell. Joe Flacco and the Browns are like a supercharged version of Brissett and the Commanders. Flacco is a professional quarterback with an All-Star defense and excellent weapons around him.
Cleveland’s defense is incredible overall this season, but even better at home in front of the Dawg Pound. Last week, there were a lot of big spreads that didn’t cover, but this week I think the Browns do everything they can to clinch so they can rest up in Week 18. The bug spread is scary this time of the year, but my Jets-Browns pick is Browns by two touchdowns or more.
Pick: Browns 21-6
Update: Joe Flacco and the Browns took care of business, earning an impressive 37-20 victory to clinch a playoff spot.
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5)
Full Lions-Cowboys betting preview
While the Lions are still officially in the mix for the NFC title and look like they have righted the ship after a few dicey weeks, they don’t really need this game as they are locked into no worse than the No. 3 seed in the NFC. As for the Cowboys, they are likely locked into No. 5, but they need this to get right after two straight demoralizing losses.
Getting the No. 5 seed for the Cowboys is tough, as they are not good on the road. That said, we’ll deal with that in two weeks when the playoffs start. For now, the Cowboys are still great in Jerry’s World, so let’s take them to win and do so handily.
Pick: Cowboys 42-28
Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)
Full Dolphins-Ravens betting preview
Here in the NFL Week 17 picks, predictions, and odds column, the Miami Dolphins foiled us on Christmas Eve, winning and (barely!) covering the -1.5 spread. This week they go on the road to play a Ravens team that looked like the best team in the NFL, turning over Brock Purdy 57 times (approximately).
If the Dolphins win this game, they clinch the AFC East, so they will be going all out (but won't have Jaylen Waddle). The Ravens need this, too, though, to wrap up the No. 1 seed and a bye in the first round. Both teams are playing well right now and had big wins last week. In the end, this is a toss-up, so let’s just take the home team to win and send the Dolphins to a (likely) massive Week 18 showdown with the Bills.
Pick: Ravens 28-23
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-14)
Full Patriots-Bills betting preview
This Bills team can’t keep playing down to bad opponents’ levels all season, right? Think about this. Buffalo’s losses this season have come against the Jets, Jaguars, Patriots, Bengals, Broncos, and Eagles. Only one of those is a legitimately “good” team, and only two will probably make the playoffs.
On the other side of the field, the Patriots are still playing hard for Bill Belichick, but the quarterback and wide receivers are just hopelessly bad. This seems like a game that the Bills will win because they are better and they have to but, for some frustrating reason for Bills Mafia, Josh Allen and company won’t make it easy.
Pick: Bills 20-17
Atlanta Falcons at Chicago Bears (-2.5)
This game is so bad that I skipped it multiple times, consciously and subconsciously while writing this NFL Week 17 picks, predictions, and odds column, and am writing this at the very end while getting ready to publish. I don't particularly care about this game (obviously) nor do I have string opinions. What I do think is that the Bears don't have to worry about losing to help their second first-round draft pick and Justin Fields and Matt Eberflus are fighting furiously for their jobs next season right now.
On the other side, Arthur Smith is also in major trouble as the head coach of the Falcons, but I'm not sure there is much he can do at this point after making so many mistakes throughout the season. With these two bad teams, it will probably be a ridiculous one-point game, but the Bears just seem like the stronger team right now, so let's take them to cover.
Pick: Bears 16-10
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-4.5)
Full Titans vs. Texans betting preview
The Texans have been the bane of the NFL Week 17 picks, predictions, and odds space for weeks now. Quarterback CJ Stroud plays, he doesn’t play, they are favored, they are dogs, and whatever we pick to happen, the opposite goes down.
This week, Stroud will be back from concussion protocol after two games away and will face the Titans, who have nothing more to play for this season but are coached by Mike Vrabel, so they may come out swinging. With Stroud back, let’s take the Texans to get the dub and stay alive, but the Titans to make it closer than it should be.
Pick: Texans 21-20
Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5)
The Raiders are clinging to the thinnest of playoff hopes after beating the Chiefs on Christmas, but they are actually playing for something much bigger: the opportunity to pick their own coach and get Antonio Pierce to keep his job. Plus, the defense is playing really well right now. Unfortunately, you can’t say the same about the offense.
As for the Colts, they have alternated wins and losses for a month now, and after losing last week, it stands to reason they will beat the Raiders at home in Week 17. The Ws have become less convincing (for the most part) as the season has gone along, though, and the Raiders just seem like a team on a mission right now. Aidan O’Connell will need to play better, but if he does, Las Vegas can pull this one out for the upset.
Pick: Raiders 28-27
Los Angeles Rams (-6) at New York Giants
Tyrod Taylor is the best quarterback on the Giants right now, and having him under center gives the team the best chance to win games this season. That begs the question, though, at 5-10, why are you trying to win games this season?!?!
I know coaches aren’t built this way, especially a good, competitive one like Brian Daboll, but why not let Tommy “Cutlets” DeVito finish out the string for better or worse to improve your chances to at least get LSU’s Jayden Daniels or another top QB? It makes no sense, but here we are. The good news for Giants fans is that the Rams are playing well and need this game, so they win no matter who is handing off to Saquon Barkley.
Pick: Rams 26-16
San Francisco 49ers (-14) at Washington Commanders
Full 49ers-Commanders betting preview
This looks like a 49ers walk as the team should be mad and ready to get revenge on a weaker team after losing just its fourth game of the season. However, this loss was eerily similar to the Niners’ other losses, and the first one of those started a three-game losing streak with Trent Brown (and Deebo Samuel) out. Brown looks like he’s out again, and Brock Purdy has gone out of back-to-back games now with “stingers.”
The Commanders may be a pushover, but Jacoby Brissett is a professional QB who does crazy things like throwing the ball to open players instead of forcing it into coverage and making sure playmakers like Terry McLaurin touch the ball. Wild stuff! I don’t love the upset here, but it wouldn’t be surprising if Brissett made one last stand for Ron Rivera and covered here, unless of course he doesn't play because of his late add to the injury report. For now, we will assume he gives it a go.
Pick: 49ers 30-27
Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5)
Full Panthers-Jaguars betting preview
In the battle of the 1995 NFL expansion teams, the Jaguars need this game a lot more than the Panthers do. That said, in what is early in the running for worst trades in NFL history, the Bears own the Panthers' (currently) No. 1 overall pick, so winning games does nothing to help Carolina's 2024 NFL Draft stock.
Jacksonville is still somehow in the lead to win the AFC South, despite trying their hardest to give it away with a shocking four straight losses. As bad as the Jaguars have been, though, the Panthers are simply worse, and the home team should win this game even with Trevor Lawrence ruled out. The line has dropped from Jaguars -6 to -3.5, but we'll still take them to cover.
Pick: Jaguars 17-7
Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles (-11.5)
Full Cardinals vs. Eagles betting preview
Speaking of teams that should be shamed if they don’t blow out their NFL Week 17 opponent, the Eagles absolutely fall into that category. They definitely have their issues, but beating down the Cardinals at home to keep pace in the NFC and NFC East is a must.
The Cardinals have a borderline quarterback in Kyler Murray, a seemingly good coach in Jonathan Gannon, and two first-round picks in 2024. They are set up to be an interesting NFL franchise moving forward. They’re just not that anymore in 2023. The Eagles should win this one by a lot as they look to get right heading into the playoffs.
Pick: Eagles 35-13
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5)
Not much went right in the NFL Week 17 picks, predictions, and odds column last week, but our Buccaneers continued to win us money! This week, they are taking on the Saints, and New Orleans actually opened as favorites on the road for some reason. Someone in Vegas obviously hates Baker Mayfield or Todd Bowles, but I’ll take it if it keeps winning us these bets.
The Saints stink, and there is no reason to think things will get better on the road in Tampa Bay. With a win here, the Buccaneers should get a step closer to their rightful spot as NFC South champs, where they would play the Cowboys at home, and you’re damn right we’re thinking about picking them there.
Pick: Buccaneers 26-12
Pittsburgh Steelers at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5)
We’re getting to the end of the NFL Week 17 picks, predictions, and odds column, and I’m getting tired. So, you can insert your own Mason Rudolph “The Red-Nosed Reindeer” winning on Christmas weekend joke here. As for his team, the Steelers (yet again) need one more win to ensure Mike Tomlin still won’t have a losing season in Pittsburgh. They just won’t get that this Sunday.
The Seahawks are battle-tested after a brutal stretch against playoff teams where they lost four out of five games. That gauntlet is paying off now, though, as they are finding ways to win and scratch-and-claw their way into the NFC Playoffs. They’ll get one step closer with a relatively comfortable win over Pittsburgh.
Pick: Seahawks 21-16
Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5)
The Chiefs can’t lose again. At least that’s what most NFL fans keep telling themselves. This team is just brutal on offense recently despite having the best quarterback in the NFL. At some point, having no receivers and a tight end more interested in podcasting and wooing Taylor Swift will catch up with you.
As for the Bengals, it seems like they will get Ja’Marr Chase back, which is huge, but how will he be just two weeks removed from a serious shoulder injury? This is a cursed season for the Bengals, and if they get down early, don’t be surprised if they are content to pack it in and start planning for 2024 when Joe Burrow is back.
Pick: Chiefs 34-20
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos (-3.5)
Remember when we talked about the Bryce Young trade being in the early stages of contention for the worst trade in NFL history? Well, that deal still has a long way to go in order to catch up and pass the Russell Wilson trade. The Broncos just benched Wilson to protect him from injury and so his $37 million contract in 2025 doesn't get guaranteed. This is a brutal turn of events that likely means the Broncos are about to write Wilson a $39 million check for next season and take an unprecedented $85 million dead cap hit to walk away.
However, the Chargers played their game of the season for their new coach next week, and Sean Payton will be looking to prove that he made the right decision axing Russ. Since I also don’t see this as a close game either way, I’ll take a Broncos blowout, even though the Chargers winning by three scores isn’t out of the question either.
Pick: Broncos 31-10
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-1.5)
No one is more down (overall) on Jordan Love and the Packers than me, but I had to double-check this spread because the Vikings seem even more cooked right now than the Packers. Sure, they have Justin Jefferson back, but the quarterback and running back positions are a mess.
The more I looked into this game, the more my Packers doubt crept in, and I started to talk myself into the Vikings at home. In the end, though, my initial reaction was surprised the Packers weren’t at least small favorites, which means we’ll trust my gut and go with Green Bay here on Sunday night to wrap up this NFL Week 17 picks, predictions, and odds column.
Pick: Packers 17-16
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