NFL picks, predictions, odds for Week 11: Jets upset Patriots

The NFL Week 11 slate starts with the possibly resurgent Green Bay Packers taking on the AFC South-leading Tennessee Titans. Before the Thursday night game starts the new week of pro football, let’s continue our NFL odds series with the Week 11 picks and predictions for every game on the schedule.

In Week 10, the Buffalo Bills and Minnesota Vikings played the game of the year thus far, Jeff Saturday made off with the first victory of his NFL coaching career against the Las Vegas Raiders, and Aaron Rodgers finally got the Packers’ season on track by beating the Dallas Cowboys – and his former coach, Mike McCarthy — in overtime. In Week 11, the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, New England Patriots, and New York Jets return from their bye week, while the Jacksonville Jaguars, Miami Dolphins, Seattle Seahawks, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers sit out until Week 12.

Previous NFL Picks & Predictions: Week 10 | Week 9 | Week 8

So, without further ado, let’s do the NFL picks, predictions, and odds for each game on the Week 11.

Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the NFL odds.

Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers (-3.5)

Read our full Titans-Packers betting preview

Did Aaron Rodgers truly find something in the Packers' offense he can make shine? Or did Mike McCarthy just Mike McCarthy one last game in Green Bay? Those are the questions we will find out the answer to when the Titans head to Wisconsin. I’m going to guess the answer is the latter and not the former, and the Titans get the W to start off our Week 11 NFL picks and predictions.

Pick: Titans 17-16

Update: The Titans beat the Packers 27-17 to start off Week 11. 

Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens (-13)

Read our full Panthers-Ravens betting preview

The Ravens are rested and ready coming off their bye, while the Panthers have an interim head coach and their best player now plays for the 49ers. Still, the Panthers are frisky under interim coach Steve Wilks and haven’t given up on the season, as much as the owner would probably like them to. Baltimore should win this game, but not by the blowout margin Vegas says.

Pick: Ravens 24-17

Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills (-7.5)

Read our full Browns-Bills betting preview

The Bills seem to find new ways each year to lose games in heartbreaking fashion. The 2022 edition of the Bills added goal line fumble for an opposing touchdown, 30-second field goal drive, and overtime interception to classics like 13 seconds and wide right. This game, though, looms larger for the Browns as Jacoby Brissett’s last stand before Deshaun Watson makes his return following the team’s Week 12 bye. A frustrated Josh Allen and company should make Brissett’s last game as the starter one to forget and cover the touchdown-plus spread, even with this game moving to Detroit because of a blizzard.

Pick: Bills 31-21

Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) at Indianapolis Colts

Read our full Eagles-Colts betting preview

In Week 10, it was a dream for the Colts, winning Jeff Saturday’s debut vs. the horrible Raiders, and a nightmare for the Eagles, losing their undefeated season against a rough and ready division opponent in the Commanders. In this NFL Week 11 matchup, those roles should reverse, and the Eagles will get back to their dream season while the Colts realize they aren’t asleep and Saturday really is their coach.

Pick: Eagles 28-13

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-3.5)

Read our full Jets-Patriots betting preview

The narrative here is that Bill Belichick owns the Jets and, by extension, their young quarterback, Zach Wilson. However, the reality is that no matter how good the Patriots' defense is this season, the Jets’ is actually better and will cause “Mac Zappe” all kinds of problems, no matter who is under center. With a solid running game and a budding Legion of Boom, the Jets will take this AFC East showdown as a major upset pick in these Week 11 NFL picks and predictions.

Pick: Jets 20-17

Washington Commanders (-3) at Houston Texans

Read our full Commanders-Texans betting preview

Taylor Heinicke and the Commanders played the game of their season on Monday night vs. their NFC East-rival Eagles. However, Washington hasn’t shown any type of consistency in, well, decades, so losing to the lowly Texans after ending the Eagles would be right on-brand for them. That said, with Heinicke, a fearsome running game, and weapons all over the field, maybe these aren’t the same old Commanders. If they are a team with a new lease on life, they’ll take care of business on Sunday.

Pick: Commanders 20-14

Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (-2.5)

Read our full Rams-Saints betting preview

The Saints are coming off a loss to Kenny Pickett and the lowly Steelers last week, so being favored by a field goal over anyone is a little head-scratching. However, without Cooper Kupp, who is now on IR with an ankle injury, the Rams have absolutely nothing. Add that to the dreaded West Coast team traveling east for a 1:00 p m. ET kickoff and — I can’t believe I’m saying this — let’s take the Saints to cover.

Pick: Saints 16-9

Detroit Lions at New York Giants (-3)

Read our full Lions-Giants betting preview

The Lions pulled it together last week and found a way to get it done vs. the Bears and pull out a win. The Giants do that every week, though, and last week’s W vs. the Texans was no exception. At best, the 2023 Lions can hope to become the 2022 Giants. But for right now, the G Men are the better team, and they will play like it at home in this NFL Week 11 contest.

Pick: Giants 23-13

Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons (-3)

Read our full Bears-Falcons betting preview

This is a matchup between the two best running teams in the league. The Bears lead the league with 2,017 yards on the ground coming into this game, and the Falcons are right behind them at 1,604 yards. You’d think that means that this game would be three yards and a cloud of dust, but these are explosive running games (vs. porous defenses), and a lot of handoffs and scrambles in this game will equal big points.

Pick: Bears 31-28

Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-2.5)

Read our full Raiders-Broncos betting preview

Before the season, many of us circled this NFL Week 11 matchup on the schedule as a battle between two teams that would be among the best in the AFC West and, by extension, the best in the league. Now, it’s the exact opposite. These two teams are just playing for a little respectability and are vying to stay out of the basement of their sad division. Russell Wilson and the Broncos are a little less sad than crying Derek Carr and the Raiders, so give the points at home.

Pick: Broncos 21-12

Dallas Cowboys (-1.5) at Minnesota Vikings

RECOMMENDED (Article Continues Below)

AJ Brown trade rumors get fueled by Patriots exec's take on WR interest

Conor Roche · 13 hours ago

Patriots' Eliot Wolf leaves door open to trade No. 3 pick in NFL Draft

Conor Roche · 17 hours ago

Eagles' AJ Brown clarifies Tom Brady profile picture choice after Patriots rumors

Nick Meyer · 20 hours ago

Read our full Cowboys-Vikings betting preview

Last week, the Vikings took the first step to proving they are for real. They moved the ball against the (now) No. 2 scoring defense in the league and forced timely turnovers to win a big game on the road. Conversely, the Cowboys should have squashed the Packers, but they let them hang around and ultimately take the game. Many (including Vegas) still don’t believe in the Vikings, but I do in perhaps the best game of Week 11.

Pick: Vikings 27-24

Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Read our full Bengals-Steelers betting preview

The Steelers had the perfect conditions last week — vs. a bad team, at home, coming off a bye — and while they got the win over the Saints, they didn’t look that convincing doing it. Yes, the Bengals will still be without Ja’Marr Chase, but coming off their bye, Joe Burrow and the crew will be fresh and ready to beat up their AFC North rival on the ground with Joe Mixon.

Pick: Bengals 34-13

Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) at Los Angeles Chargers

Read our full Chiefs-Chargers betting preview

Here’s another AFC West showdown that isn’t anything near what pundits thought it would be three months ago. The Chiefs are rolling, the Chargers are reeling, and there’s no reason to think that the better team shouldn’t win this with relative ease. Plus, the SoFi stands will be as red as Arrowhead on Sunday, so home field won’t make a difference.

Pick: Chiefs 28-17

San Francisco 49ers (-8.5) at Arizona Cardinals

Kyler Murray may or may not play in this NFC West matchup but, frankly, it won’t matter either way as we finish out our Week 11 NFL picks and predictions. In fact, the Cardinals might take another step toward proving that a QB who runs Kliff Kingsbury’s offense in the manner it was intended instead of freelancing on every play is actually better for the franchise if Colt McCoy goes. Regardless of the Cards' QB, the 49ers are a team on the rise right now and should (barely) cover.

Pick: 49ers 31-21

Establish the Pass Podcast NFL Week 11 Picks & Predictions