NFL picks, predictions, odds for Week 1: Jets upset 49ers

The NFL is back, and Week 1 is finally here! After a long, boring offseason it is finally time to fire up Red Zone, pull up multiple windows of fantasy teams, and reload the balance on your favorite betting app. Things kicked off Thursday with the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Baltimore Ravens in a thriller, and that was followed up by an eventful game in Brazil between the Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers. So, without further ado, let’s get to the rest of our NFL Week 1 picks, predictions, and odds.

The 2024 NFL season is underway with a smorgasbord of NFL games, with the traditional Thursday night opener, a surprising Friday night game in Brazil, eight early window Sunday games, four in the late window, a Sunday nighter, and the Monday night closer between the New York Jets and San Francisco 49ers.

As Week 1 always goes, there are storylines in every single game as hope springs eternal for all teams (except maybe the New England Patriots), at least for one week. And because we don’t have any data to operate on, it is also — by far — the most difficult slate of the season to bet on. Every year there are six new playoff teams (give or take), so many of the teams we expect to be good this year may not be, and some we predict will be bad may go in the opposite direction.

That’s why the spreads this week are so small. There are no double-digit spreads this week and only two home dogs. Oddsmakers are leaning toward home teams and only slightly toward teams that were good last year, because, hey, you never know.

While we’re no better than the bookmakers, a little research, some knowledge of pro football history, and a few educated guesses can go a long way, so that’s what you’ll get with this NFL Week 1 picks, predictions, and odds column.

Last season, this went a long way toward giving out winners. Picking every game, all year, we went 174-98 (63.9%) straight-up and 143-118-11 (54.7%) against the spread in the regular season. Our final percentages after 285 NFL games, including the Super Bowl, were 184-101 (64.5%) straight-up and 150-124-11 (54.7%) with the points. That’s making money, people!

Now, here are the NFL Week 1 picks, predictions, and odds.

Courtesy of DraftKings, here are the NFL odds.

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (-3)

Full Ravens-Chiefs betting preview

At this point, the Chiefs have turned into an NBA team in that they don’t seem to care about the regular season at all. They know they can turn it on in the playoffs — either at home or on the road — and win the Super Bowl. So, don’t expect them to push hard for an AFC crown this season.

That said, it’s Week 1, everyone should be fired up, and Patrick Mahomes and company should be excited to show off the Chiefs' new toys, like a revamped offensive line and rookie first-round wide receiver Xavier Worthy. Plus, other than adding 30-year-old running back Derrick Henry, how did the Ravens get better this offseason? Give me the Chiefs.

Pick: Chiefs 28-21

UPDATE: It was only by the tip of a toe but we nailed this one almost exactly as the Cheifs won 27-20. 

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)

Full Packers-Eagles betting preview

There is no home-field advantage in Sao Paolo, Brazil, so this comes down to who you think is better. The Eagles have been the more successful squad the last few seasons, but that could flip this year after these two teams ended last season going in opposite directions.

The Packers are young and seemingly on the way up, while the Eagles are older (but not really old, expect maybe on each line) and could be regressing after losing key players like Jason Kelce and Haason Reddick. This could be a weird one down in South America, but I like a fully healthy Packers to pull the upset.

Pick: Packers 24-23

UPDATE: The Packers not only lost in a heartbreaker, but they also lost Jordan Love to a sprained MCL. 

Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears (-4)

Full Titans-Bears betting preview

This game is one of the hardest to pick in the NFL Week 1 picks, predictions, and odds slate as it features two young quarterbacks who we don’t know a ton about yet. Can the Titans’ Will Levis improve on some moments of brilliance (and a lot of mistakes) last season? Is Caleb Williams the second coming of Patrick Mahomes, or just a normal rookie QB right now?

The answer to these two questions will determine how this game goes. As it stands, the Bears have more talent, so let’s take them to win, but because of the question marks and the youth, let’s say it’s by a field goal or less, meaning they won’t cover.

Pick: Bears 17-16

Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons (-4)

Full Steelers-Falcons betting preview

There’s an old football saying that goes, if you have two quarterbacks, you really have none. Well, both these teams have two QBs — Russell Wilson and Justin Fields for Pittsburgh, Kirk Cousins and Michael Penix Jr. for Atlanta — so do they really have none?

Cousins is the best name in this QB stew, and even at 36 coming off an Achilles injury, I have more confidence in him than Fields now that he's starting over an injured Wilson. Plus, the weapons on offense for the Falcons far exceed what the Steelers have. That’s why it seems like Atlanta should take care of business with relative ease here.

Pick: Falcons 21-10

Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins (-3.5)

Full Jaguars-Dolphins betting preview

This should be a track meet, with the Dolphins being the most exciting offensive team in the NFL this year and the Jaguars making major offensive additions this offseason to try and get there.

It will be tough for the ‘Phins to stay as healthy this year as they were last year, but for one week at least they are still better than the Jags. This should be a shootout on South Beach, but the Dolphins should cover, even after the crazy Tyreek Hill arrest before the game.

Pick: Dolphins 35-31

New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals (-8)

Full Patriots-Bengals betting preview

We have and will talk about teams in contention for worst in the NFL this season, but really, the Patriots take the cake. Their offensive line is so bad that they are starting Jacoby Brissett despite him being outplayed by rookie Drake Maye because the team is scared for the QB’s life behind its line.

There are some red flags with the Bengals as well, from the Ja’Marr Chase hold-in to Joe Burrows’ lingering wrist issues, but they should absolutely have enough in the tank Week 1 to smoke the Pats. Plus, Chase is active.

Pick: Bengals 33-6

Houston Texans (-3) at Indianapolis Colts

Full Texans-Colts betting preview

As far as meaningful games go, this NFL Week 1 AFC South showdown is among the most important on the schedule, as the winner gets an early leg up in the division. It’s also a battle between C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson, who are both looking to stake their claim to the title of Best Young QB in the NFL.

Even though the game is in Indy, the Texans have more talent across the board, and Stroud is better than Richardson. Plus, while it is a different team, there has to be some bad juju around the Colts being 0-9-1 against the spread in their last decade of Week 1 games. Give me the visitors in a shootout.

Pick: Texans 34-28

Minnesota Vikings (-1) at New York Giants

Full Vikings-Giants betting preview

In the epic battle between Daniel Jones and Sam Darnold, I’ll take… changing the channel to another game. Alas, someone has to win this game, and it’s pretty much a coin flip. Neither team is likely going to be all that good this season, but in Week 1, you just never know.

This pick is less of a judgment about either of these teams and more of a straight-up betting play here in the NFL Week 1 picks, predictions, and odds column. Talent, coaching, and QB-wise, these teams are roughly the same, for better or worse, so let’s take the points with the home dog here.

Pick: Giants 13-10

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-3.5)

Full Panthers-Saints betting preview

Another matchup between two of the worst teams in the NFL, this game should be a snooze-fest as well. It makes some sense that the Saints are a field goal-plus favorite at home after finishing 9-8 last season to the Panthers’ 2-15 record. Still, neither of these teams is all that good.

The Panthers have a new coach, and that could give them a bump in Week 1 at least, plus, for anyone who remembers Saints fans in the 1980s with paper bags on their heads, they know that the Superdome crowd can turn on its own team pretty quickly. So, while there probably won’t be a lot of Panthers picks this season, let’s go with them in the NFL Week 1 picks, predictions, and odds column.

Pick: Panthers 7-6

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Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills (-6.5)

Full Cardinals-Bills betting preview

How quickly we lose faith in trendy Super Bowl picks that don’t deliver right away. The Bills have been one of the best teams in the league over the past few years, but after letting several veterans go and not replacing them with big-name free agents, the pundits have fallen out of love with Josh Allen and the Bills.

On the flip side, fantasy football players especially have fallen in love with the fully healthy and scampering Kyler Murray and his rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr., who has become the highest-drafted rookie wideout in fantasy football history. On the real field, the Bills are still much better, especially in Buffalo at 1 p.m. ET.

Pick: Bills 35-20

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-3)

Full Raiders-Chargers betting preview

An early AFC West showdown will put one of these teams in contention with the Chiefs for the division and the other in the “uh oh” category. The three-point line for the home team suggests that this game is a toss-up, and it’s a little misleading because, from a crowd noise perspective, the Raiders will have the advantage in SoFi. Jim Harbaugh will have a rude awakening that he’s not in the Big House anymore.

Obviously, the Chargers have a huge quarterback advantage here and if Justin Herbert dominates, you’ll be kicking yourself for not just going with the better QB. That said, the talent overall is fairly even so give me the points in this one.

Pick: Raiders 24-23

Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)

Full Broncos-Seahawks betting preview

Speaking of “you’re not in college anymore” moments, Bo Nix gets the loudest stadium in the NFL for his opener in the same region where he finished his college career. Rookie QBs on the road in Week 1 have not fared well over the years. Since 1970, they “are 8-19 SU and 12-13-2 ATS, losing those games SU by an average of 4.3 PPG,” according to Action Network.

Between the crowd, the new Mike Macdonald-coached Seahawks defense, and the history, the Seahawks should best that average score and cover the spread here.

Pick: Seahawks 20-10

Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns (-2.5)

Full Cowboys-Browns betting preview

There is a lot to dislike about the Cowboys' preseason, from the CeeDee Lamb drama to Mike McCarthy potentially being a lame duck. At least Dak Prescott got his new contract!

That said, the Browns are a tough team to believe in until Deshaun Watson shows he is still anything like the QB he was in Houston. That's why the pick here is the ‘Boys.

Pick: Cowboys 20-14

Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4)

Full Commanders-Buccaneers betting preview

Another rookie quarterback on the road situation happens when Jayden Daniels travels to Tampa Bay to face the Buccaneers. What Daniels has going for him is that the Pirate Ship is not nearly as daunting as Lumen Field and the team across from his is not nearly as talented as the Seahawks.

Still, the numbers are what the numbers are, and no rookie QB has won on the road in Week 1 since Sam Darnold in 2018. So, let’s play the numbers game here in the NFL Week 1 picks, predictions, and odds column and go with the Commanders to cover but lose straight-up.

Pick: Buccaneers 21-20

Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions (-4.5)

Full Rams-Lions betting preview

The Lions are the trendy Super Bowl pick of 2024, and the Rams lost Aaron Donald this offseason, feature a 36-year-old quarterback, and still have a questionable defense and average offensive line. So, there are a lot of people picking the Lions here, but…

Nothing. The Rams are well-coached and have a talented offense, but the Lions are one of the most complete teams in the league. This game could be reminiscent of when the Rams opened with the top preseason hype team, the Bills, back in 2022, and got boat-raced. In fact, we’ll even go with the same score.

Pick: Lions 31-10

New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers (-4)

Full Jets-49ers betting preview

Despite winning their Week 1 game in 2023, the Jets’ season effectively ended after four offensive plays when Aaron Rodgers went out for the season with a torn Achilles. This year, the Jets are the favorites to win the AFC East, as long as Rodgers stays healthy.

That’s not a given for a 40-year-old NFL player, but at least for one night, he’ll show the Jets fans what could be. The 49ers have had a messy offseason all around, so Week 1 may be a little sloppy as well. Four points is one of the bigger spreads in the NFL Week 1 picks, predictions, and odds column, so I like the Jets to cover and also win outright.

Pick: Jets 28-27

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