After the NFL’s Super Wild Card Weekend, we are down to the final eight teams in the 2024 NFL Playoffs. For the most part, the pretenders are gone, and the true contenders remain (for the most part, Tampa Bay Buccaneers fans). In the Divisional Round, we get our last two Saturday games of the season, with an AFC and NFC clash on each day. And for my money, it’s the best weekend of football of every season. With that in mind, let’s get to our NFL Divisional Round picks, predictions, and odds.
The weekend kicks off with AFC No. 1 seed Baltimore Ravens hosting the No. 4 seed Houston Texans (4:30 pm ET, ABC, ESPN), followed by the NFC No. 1 seed San Francisco 49ers hosting the No. 7 Green Bay Packers (8:00 pm ET, FOX) on Saturday. On Sunday, we get the NFC No. 5 seed Buccaneers at the No. 3 Detroit Lions, and it all wraps up with the AFC No. 3 seed Kansas City Chiefs at the No. 2 Buffalo Bills (6:30 pm ET, CBS).
This is a near-perfect schedule for the Divisional Round of the NFC Playoffs. On Saturday, we get to see both No. 1 seeds in action. That means by the end of the day, we’ll know if we’re getting a chalk but heavyweight matchup in the Conference Championships or if the postseason is about to descend into joyful chaos. Then, on Sunday, we get two plucky underdogs followed by the main event of the weekend: Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen.
We are now down to the final seven games of the NFL season, which is incredibly sad on many levels. However, it also means we should get some of the best football we’ve seen in the last year. So, sit back, relax, get your favorite betting app warmed up, and enjoy!
It was playoff time here in the ClutchPoints picks, predictions, and odds column, too, and we survived and advanced with our results last week. When the dust settled on the first round, we were 4-2 straight-up and 3-3 against the spread (darn Lions!).
As a reminder, in this space, we were 174-98 (63.9%) straight-up and 143-118-11 (54.7%) against the spread in the regular season. The Wild Card results put us at 66% straight-up and even against the spread in the playoffs. Our all-in 2023-24 record now stands at 178-100 (64.0%) picking winners and 146-121-11 (54.6%) using the Vegas number.
Previous NFL Picks & Predictions: Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 | Week 10 | Week 11 | Week 12| Week 13 | Week 14 | Week 15| Week 16 | Week 17 | Week 18 | Wild Card
Now, here are the NFL Divisional Round picks, predictions, and odds.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the NFL odds
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5)
The surprise AFC team still left in the playoffs is the Texans. Many people thought the Cleveland Browns were legit Super Bowl contenders before the Joe Flacco implosion finally came, and the Texans took full advantage.
Rookie quarterback CJ Stroud is continuing his incredible run, and now his Texans are in striking distance of the Big Game. However, the team lost another wide receiver last week in Noah Brown, and now this game is even more on Stroud’s shoulders. Still, he has an excellent defense backing him up, and if that unit shows up big, the Texans could cause trouble for the No. 1 seed.
Speaking of the top AFC team, the Ravens looked like the best team in football over the last month, even beating the NFC’s top-seeded 49ers. That’s why the bye week the Ravens earned might not be a good thing after all.
Taking basically two weeks off after resting starters in Week 18 could kill the momentum the Ravens had coming into the NFL Playoffs. So, it’s incumbent on Lamar Jackson and the offense to get off to a fast start in this game to make sure things keep rolling.
That’s what to watch for in this game. If the Ravens come out hot, it shouldn’t be a contest. If they let the Texans hang around, that’s bad news for Baltimore.
Ultimately, I don’t love the rust but will give the Ravens the benefit of the doubt here because they are the better, healthier, more rested team, which is why our Texans-Ravens pick goes to the home team, but not by the huge margin the line suggests.
Pick: Ravens 27-20
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-9.5)
When you’re wrong, you have to admit it and move on. In the ClutchPoints picks, predictions, and odds space, we’ve been wrong about Jordan Love. He is playing well and is not as overrated as previous columns suggest. So, let’s take the L here and keep it moving.
The Packers beat up a fraudulent Cowboys squad in the Wild Card Round and look like a legit contender now. Still, the injuries continue to pile up for the Packers, and they face a rested 49ers team on Saturday.
Why are the 49ers rested while the Ravens are rusty? It’s all about momentum and health.
The 49ers lost two of their last three, but as we’ve maintained all along in the ClutchPoints picks, predictions, and odds column, San Francisco is the best team in the league when fully healthy. Plus, the 49ers have so many weapons and options they should be able to find some hot hand on Saturday, while the Ravens rely so much on Jackson.
Going against the Packers bit us last week, but we can’t be prisoners of the moment here. The 49ers are the best team in the NFC by some margin, and they’ll take care of business and advance.
Pick: 49ers 34-21
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (-6.5)
Congrats to the Buccaneers for beating the spiraling Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday (as predicted in last week’s column). Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers all earned some redemption and looked impressive doing so.
If you’ve read the ClutchPoints picks, predictions, and odds column regularly this season leading up to this Divisional Round — and if so, thank you, and congrats on winning money! — you know that we’ve ridden the Buccaneers and Vegas’ weird hatred of them all season.
As the playoffs roll on, we’re going to continue that trend (sort of).
The Lions and Buccaneers are similar teams. In the end, though, the Lions have more talent up and down the roster, although that talent is a lot younger and more inexperienced than the Buccaneers' best players.
When these two teams played in Week 6, the Lions won 20-6, but that was a lifetime ago in NFL time. Yes, the Lions are at home and are on a roll, but the Buccaneers have figured some things out and won’t be the pushover they were earlier in the season.
In the end, I do like the Lions to advance at home, but in a game between two similar teams in the most pressure-packed spot, it’s hard to imagine a touchdown or more blowout. So, let’s take Detroit in another close one.
Pick: Lions 28-27
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (-2.5)
The NFL Divisional Round wraps up with what should be the game of the day when Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs travel to Western New York to play Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills.
Allen and Mahomes have split the six games they’ve played against each other, although the Chiefs have won both playoff games against the Bills with Allen under center. However, what is different about this game is that it is the first time in his career that Mahomes will start a playoff game outside of Kansas City.
The Chiefs are no stranger to the cold after beating the Miami Dolphins in inhumanly cold temperatures last week, but the Bills have something stronger than the weather: The Bills Mafia.
Highmark Stadium is going to be packed with Buffalonians who’ve been buried under eight feet or more of snow after two storms in the last week. If any fan base can will its team to a victory, it’s this one on Sunday night.
However, whatever other factors are at play, this game is going to come down to Allen vs. Mahomes. The Chiefs QB has finally found a formula that involves Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce, a little Isiah Pacheco, and almost no one else. It’s the best way for the Chiefs to win games.
On the other side, it’s all about Allen and running the ball. If the Bills can do the latter while having the former make a few big plays and limit his massive mistakes, that’s a winning formula for Buffalo.
This could be a curse-breaking year all around for the Bills, and if that’s the case, it starts with Allen getting his first postseason win over Mahomes. That’s why in the ClutchPoints NFL Divisional Round picks, predictions, and odds column, we’ll take the Bills — not by a billion — but by enough to cover.
Pick: Bills 28-24
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