Then there were four. The NFL Divisional Round has given way to the AFC and NFC Championship Games, as the Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, and Detroit Lions all battle it out to go to Super Bowl 58 in Las Vegas. We’re in for two heavyweight fights to wrap up the NFL Playoffs on Sunday, so let’s get into the NFL Championship Weekend picks, predictions, and odds.
The AFC and NFC Championship Round has two games, both on Sunday. First, there is the AFC No. 1 seeded Ravens hosting the No. 3 seeded Chiefs (3:00 pm ET, CBS), followed by the NFC No. 1 seeded 49ers welcoming the No. 3 seeded Lions (6:30 pm ET, FOX).
For NFL fans, this is the last real weekend of football for seven full months. Sure, there is still the Pro Bowl Games and the Super Bowl, but the former is nonsense aimed at kids (which it should be), and the latter likely involves a party where you’ll be asked things like, “Why don’t they show Taylor Swift more?” or “How many more periods are there before Usher comes out?”
This is the last time we’ll get to watch football without all the nonsense, and fittingly, these are games between the four best teams in the league this year. With apologies to the choking Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles, and Dallas Cowboys, it is hard to argue that when you add everything up from, ironically, the Lions and Chiefs opening the 2023 season until now — 282 NFL games later — there are no better, more deserving squads than these four.
So, enjoy it this weekend. Drink it in. Because the next time you will get to watch a real NFL game by yourself on your couch is Thursday, September 5, 2024.
The playoffs get harder as they go along for NFL teams, and the same is true in the ClutchPoints picks, predictions, and odds column, too. During the regular season, a few slightly off picks against the spread are covered up by success elsewhere. In the postseason, there is nowhere for the picks to hide. And while we went 3-1 straight-up last week, we were also a woeful 1-3 against the number, which brings us to 7-3 straight-up but 4-6 with the spread in these NFL playoffs.
Still, after a 174-98 (63.9%) straight-up and 143-118-11 (54.7%) record against the spread in the regular season, the numbers are still in our favor overall. The grand totals for the 2023-24 campaign are now 181-101 (64.1%) picking winners and 147-124-11 (54.2%) giving or taking the points.
Previous NFL Picks & Predictions: Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4 | Week 5 | Week 6 | Week 7 | Week 8 | Week 9 | Week 10 | Week 11 | Week 12| Week 13 | Week 14 | Week 15| Week 16 | Week 17 | Week 18 | Wild Card | Divisional Round
Now, here are the NFL Championship Weekend picks, predictions, and odds.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the NFL odds
Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)
Full Chiefs-Ravens AFC Championship Game betting preview
In last week’s ClutchPoints NFL picks, predictions, and odds space, we said the Ravens would come out flat, and CJ Stroud and the Texans would keep things close. With a 10-10 halftime score, we were absolutely correct … until we weren’t. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens came out and dominated the second stanza, easily covering the 9.5-point spread.
The Chiefs got everything they could handle from the Buffalo Bills on Sunday, and if not for Stefon Diggs turning into Stevie Johnson and Tyler Bass doing his best Scott Norwood impression, Patrick Mahomes would be on a beach somewhere with Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift.
That said, if you want to be a champ, you have to beat the champs, and that’s what the Ravens face on Sunday.
Jackson is about to win his second MVP Award in six NFL seasons, yet he has never had a signature playoff moment. On the other hand, Mahomes has arguably the worst team he has played with in his six seasons of starting, but when the chips are down the Chiefs QB comes through again and again.
The Ravens are the better team here, no doubt about it. But the NFL playoffs are a different animal, and you can’t always apply the clear logic you can in the postseason.
In this case, it makes sense to take the Ravens based on the 2023 NFL season. However, since we’ve never seen Jackson get it done in the playoffs and we’ve seen Mahomes do it so often, I have to use that as my sample data, too.
It wouldn’t shock me at all if the Ravens win, and in that case, it will be frustrating that we didn’t just pick the better team. If the Chiefs win, though, it will be maddening that we took a regular-season wonder over the legend Patrick Mahomes, not having learned our lesson over the past half-decade-plus.
I can live with the former better than the latter.
Pick: Chiefs 24-23
Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers (-7.5)
Full Lions-49ers NFC Championship Game betting preview
The Lions beating the Buccaneers and covering the number was the only game we were right about straight-up and against the spread last week. Detroit has been one of the most fun teams to bet on this season, even with their early/mid-season dip. How can you not root for the new Motor City Madman (apologies Ted Nugent) Dan Campbell, though?
Despite the warm feelings toward the Rust Belt Cinderella squad, Jared Goff is hard to trust. And as great as Campbell is in many aspects of coaching, he and Goff almost gave the Buccaneers a chance to get back in the game at the end with poor clock management. Kyle Shanahan won’t give them the same slack Todd Bowles did.
If you’ve read this ClutchPoints NFL picks, predictions, and odds before, you know a repetitive refrain is that the 49ers are the best team in the NFL when healthy. Unfortunately for Niners fans, they are now not healthy with the Deebo Samuel injury, and that showed as they only snuck by the Green Bay Packers last week by a field goal.
Outside of Samuel, most of the rest of the 49ers are relatively healthy, which is different from when the team went on its mid-season losing streak. So, it seems like the smart play here is to ding the 49ers for Samuel’s potential absence (and definitely not being 100%), but not so much as to think they’ll lose this game.
In the end, the Lions will fight to the death and bite some kneecaps on their way down, but they will eventually go down, and the 49ers will face the Chiefs in the Super Bowl for a rematch of Super Bowl 54.
Pick: 49ers 31-28
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